ZURICH. Raiffeisen has more than doubled its growth forecast for the Swiss economy this year and joined the economists who now expect the National Bank to end its zero interest rate policy, possibly as early as December.
In an analysis published on Thursday, the bank’s economists forecast growth of 1.7 per cent for 2026, excluding the statistical effect of major sporting events, up from the 0.8 per cent they predicted in the summer. The forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3 per cent.
Stronger than expected
The upgrade rests on an economy that has refused to slow down. Second quarter growth came in stronger than expected, and business confidence held up even through the Middle East escalation in September. Switzerland, the bank concludes, is now operating close to its potential.
The inflation forecasts moved up with it. Raiffeisen now expects consumer prices to rise 0.7 per cent this year and 1.1 per cent next, both revised upward. The drivers are the ones households already feel: energy prices that are staying high for longer than hoped, and a weaker franc that makes imports more expensive. Underlying inflation, the analysts write, is tending upward.
December in view
That combination puts the zero rate policy under pressure. With growth near potential and inflation comfortably inside the National Bank’s 0 to 2 per cent target band, the emergency setting of the past year looks increasingly out of place, the bank argues. President Martin Schlegel could adjust rates at the next monetary policy assessment on 10 December.
Raiffeisen is not alone in that reading. Markets have priced a December rise as a coin toss since the summer, and September’s inflation reading of 1 per cent, the fastest since the spring, strengthened the case. What Thursday’s forecast adds is a major retail bank saying out loud what the futures market already suspects.
The caution comes from the same data. A 1.7 per cent year flattered by one strong quarter can still end with a weak winter, and an energy shock that fades by spring would argue for patience. The SNB has surprised forecasters in both directions before. It has two months, one more inflation reading and one more growth estimate in which to decide whether to do it again.