BERN. The autumn vote Sunday is taking shape, and it contains one genuine thriller. YouGov Switzerland questioned 2,949 eligible voters between 7 and 19 October for the first barometer of the 29 November campaign, and three of the four results already look close to decided. The fourth, the referendum against the loosened War Materiel Act, is wide open: 38 per cent would accept the easier export rules parliament approved, 33 per cent would reject them, and nearly three voters in ten have not made up their minds. The margin of error is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.
The undecideds are the story. Some 42 per cent of respondents told YouGov the war materiel proposal is complex, and the same share feel poorly informed about it. The gender divide is stark: half of men back the relaxation, against only 28 per cent of women, who are also far more likely to be undecided. The law would give 25 partner states almost unrestricted access to Swiss-made weapons, even if they are at war. Opponents forced the referendum over the summer, and both camps have five weeks to explain a file most voters have not yet absorbed.
A clear no to the pension tax
The sharpest signal points the other way. Raising the standard rate of VAT from 8.1 to 8.5 per cent to finance the 13th OASI pension payment would be rejected today by 51 per cent against 38 per cent. Because it is a constitutional amendment it needs a majority of the cantons as well as the people, and the poll finds a yes majority nowhere. The divide is generational: 46 per cent of voters over 60 support the rise, but among the under-45s, who would pay it longest, support falls below 30 per cent. Voters told YouGov it is the proposal they feel best informed about.
Comfortable yeses for fairness and fireworks
The Centre party’s fairness initiative, which would write into the constitution that married couples are taxed as an economic unit and no worse than cohabiting couples, leads by 57 per cent to 29, with 14 per cent undecided. It comes to the ballot half a year after voters narrowly approved individual taxation, and the poll suggests the counter-move has the wind behind it.
The clearest picture belongs to the fireworks initiative, which would end the sale and private use of fireworks that produce noise. It stands at 62 per cent yes against 33 no, with only 6 per cent undecided, the lowest hesitation rate of the four. Here the gender gap runs the other way: 69 per cent of women back the ban against 54 per cent of men. An earlier Leewas poll reached the same destination, putting the ban at 65 per cent, and found it was the only one of the four proposals on course to pass.
Campaigns matter in the final month, and one of the two big barometers will return before vote day. But the shape is visible: a yes for quieter nights, a yes for the Centre’s marriage tax, a no to the pension VAT, and a referendum on war materiel that will be won or lost among voters who have not yet begun to think about it.