ZURICH. Swiss companies plan to raise pay by 1.0 per cent on average in 2027, UBS said on Tuesday, a slower round than the 1.1 per cent they say they awarded this year. The survey, run by the bank’s chief investment office from 7 to 30 September, covered 395 companies and employer and employee associations across 22 sectors. Almost every sector intends a nominal rise. Almost none intends a large one.
Set against the bank’s inflation forecast of 0.8 per cent for 2027, the planned rise leaves real wages up by about 0.2 per cent. That is below the long-run average, and below the 0.4 per cent real gain UBS expected for 2026. About three quarters of the firms in the survey think 2027 inflation will land between zero and 1 per cent. Their own average guess is about 0.7 per cent. They are treating October’s jump to 1.5 per cent as a fuel spike, not as a new trend they have to match in the pay round.
Where the extra per cent goes
The spread between sectors is narrow, which is the finding UBS underlined. In 15 of the 22 sectors the planned rise is 1.0 per cent. Energy, utilities and waste sit at the top, at 1.5 per cent, up from 1.0 per cent this year. Chemicals and pharmaceuticals, and metals, are at 1.2 per cent. Retail is at 0.8 per cent, the same as this year. Watches and jewellery are at 0.7 per cent, which is still a recovery from the 0.2 per cent the sector says it paid in 2026. Banks and insurers, machines, construction, food, health, the public sector and IT are all on the 1.0 per cent line. Every sector in the table plans a nominal increase. The argument is about tenths, not about a freeze.
The mood around the economy is better than the pay slips. Firms are clearly more optimistic about 2027 than they were a year ago, and nearly half expect a moderate upswing. Confidence improved in every sector, and most of all in industry. The labour market has not caught up. Most companies expect unemployment to stay where it is, and headcount to stagnate. Hiring has got easier this year, because weak demand for staff has taken the edge off the competition for people. UBS’s reading is that a brighter order book reaches the payroll later, and that low inflation expectations give firms an excuse not to hurry.
What artificial intelligence is changing, and what it is not
The same survey asked about artificial intelligence, and the answers do not show a pay premium. Most firms said they do not pay more, on hiring or for existing staff, because someone can use the tools. Four in ten said AI already supports or automates typical tasks for people starting out. Almost half said they now ask more of starters on AI skills. A majority have not seen the share of entry-level jobs shrink. About a quarter said a classic application file is losing its value, and that work samples, assessments and interviews matter more when they choose. The technology is changing the front door of a career faster than it is changing the salary band behind it.
The bill that arrives beside the raise
A 0.2 per cent real rise does not repair a household budget on its own. UBS also noted that health insurance premiums are expected to rise by about 5 per cent in 2027, which takes more out of disposable income than the pay round puts in. That is the gap between a wage statistic and a December letter. Premium forecasts have been the political argument all autumn. The salary survey says firms are not planning to offset them.
The survey closed on 30 September, before October’s inflation figure and before this week’s American election. If companies decide the fuel spike is temporary, the 1.0 per cent plan can survive a single hot month. If they decide it is not, the round that gets negotiated over the winter will look different from the round they described in September. For now the published intention is plain. Nominal pay edges up. Real pay barely does. And the sectors that had the hardest 2026, watches above all, are still at the bottom of a table that has very little distance in it.