BERN. Two forecasts now frame the question every household will answer this autumn: by how much will health premiums rise in 2027? The comparison service Comparis projects an average increase of 3.7 per cent. The Federal Office of Public Health has warned insurers that up to 5 per cent may be justified. The official figure lands in the last week of September, and the gap between the two numbers is about CHF 15 a month on an average premium.
The Comparis arithmetic is the calmer of the two. Health costs grew 3.7 per cent in 2025, according to the KOF institute forecast it commissions, and will grow 3.6 per cent this year and 3.5 per cent next. Premiums track costs with a lag, which puts a rise of 3.7 per cent, to roughly CHF 408 a month, in line with the underlying medicine.
Context matters. A 3.7 per cent rise would be the smallest in years, after 6.6 per cent for 2023, 8.7 per cent for 2024, 6 per cent for 2025 and 4.4 per cent for 2026. It would still be the fifth consecutive increase, and it would still outpace both inflation and most wage settlements, which is why the premium letter remains the most reliably infuriating piece of post in Swiss life.
Why the health office warns of more
The higher estimate rests on three uncertainties. The first is the benefits catalogue, which keeps growing: psychotherapy from psychologists, weight loss injections and support for caring relatives all arrived recently, and each new benefit feeds the premium. The second is TARDOC, the new outpatient tariff in its first full year, whose true cost effect cantons and insurers read very differently. The third is money itself.
Insurers hold reserves, and those reserves are invested. Last year the investments returned 5.4 per cent, a windfall of CHF 807 million that flattered the premium calculation, against a ten year average of about 1.6 per cent. “The returns could deteriorate quickly,” warns Comparis insurance expert Felix Schneuwly. A bad quarter in the markets between now and the final calculation would push the official number toward the top of the range.
The politics are already in position. Parliament opened its autumn session with premiums at the top of the agenda, the Federal Council has endorsed a pay cap for insurance chiefs that it concedes will not cut premiums, and the cantons are demanding predictable funding above all else. None of it changes the 2027 letters. All of it shapes the fight over 2028.
What households can still do
The practical calendar is fixed. Insurers must send the 2027 premium notices by 31 October, and anyone planning to switch basic insurance has until 30 November. The savings are real: the difference between the dearest and the cheapest insurer for the same adult in the same commune routinely exceeds CHF 100 a month, before higher franchises and family doctor or telemedicine models are considered.
The official number arrives in the last week of September. Whether it starts with a three or a four, the ritual that follows is the same: the letter, the irritation, and two months in which the most powerful consumer choice in Swiss health care is actually available. Use it.